Anti-Martingale Sizing: Compound When Hot, Protect When Cold
Anti-Martingale position scaling that increases risk during winning streaks and decreases during losing streaks, adding 8% to total R.
Why Streaks Matter
Winning and losing streaks are not random in the V7 system. Because the models are regime-sensitive, they perform better when their training regime matches the current market. A winning streak often means the market is in a regime the model understands well. A losing streak means something has shifted.
S06 exploits this by scaling position size up by 10% after three consecutive winners and down by 15% after two consecutive losers. The asymmetry is intentional: you want to be more aggressive about protecting capital (faster scale-down) than about increasing exposure (slower scale-up).
The 8% Total R Contribution
Over the full 7.5-year backtest, anti-Martingale scaling added approximately 8% to total R compared to flat sizing. That translates to roughly +42R on top of the baseline. The improvement comes almost entirely from the scale-down side. Reducing size during losing streaks prevented deeper drawdowns, which meant the system recovered faster and spent more time at full size.
The scale-up contribution was smaller and noisier. Some winning streaks continued and the larger size paid off. Others ended abruptly and the larger position took a bigger hit. On net, the scale-up added about +12R while the scale-down saved about +30R.
Why Asymmetry Is the Key
Martingale (doubling down after losses) is the fastest path to ruin. Anti-Martingale (increasing after wins) is the rational response. But the implementation details matter enormously. S06 uses a 10%/15% asymmetry rather than symmetric scaling because the cost of being wrong on a scale-up (one larger loss) is more damaging than the cost of being wrong on a scale-down (one missed larger win). In FTMO terms, a single large loss can push you into a danger zone that takes weeks to recover from. A single missed larger win just means slightly lower returns. The asymmetry reflects the fundamental constraint: survival first, growth second.